Modeling and predicting page-view dynamics on Wikipedia

The simplicity of producing and consuming online content makes it difficult to estimate how much attention will be devoted from Internet users to any given content. This work presents a general overview of temporal patterns in the access to content on a huge collaborative platform. We propose a model for predicting the popularity of promoted content, inspired by the analysis of the page-view dynamics on Wikipedia. Compared to previous studies, the observed popularity patterns are more complex; however, our model uses just few parameters to fully describe them. The model is validated through empirical measurements.